Tuesday, February 10, 2009

PECOTA Projects 2009 Cubs to Win 96 Games; Still Can't Determine Who Will Win Short Series

If you read any Cubs blogs, then you may have already heard this news since it seems like we are the last ones to report it. Apparently PECOTA, an advanced system used by sabremetricians to determine an individual player's contribution to wins based on certain advanced metrics (I think? This stuff is usually way over my head), is used in the aggregate to determine the amount of wins each team will have.

Well using PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus has determined that the Cubs will win the Central by 13 games:

Central W L RS RA

Chicago Cubs 96 66 871 749

Milwaukee Brewers 83 79 823 807

St. Louis Cardinals 80 82 779 796

Cincinnati Reds 79 83 783 796

Houston Astros 67 95 712 850

Pittsburgh Pirates 65 97 720 885

Well...we saw what all this hoopla and high hopes did for us last year. I'm not saying that 96 wins isn't nice, but isn't there something that can project wins in a series? I mean come on nerds, you've been studying the statistics and math of baseball for the past 30 years! I think it's time to figure this one out. Sorry, I just find it hard to get excited about all these Vegas odds and PECOTA projections when all I really want is a goddamn ring.


Matt Clapp said...

I don't see the Brewers winning 83 games. No CC, no Sheets, and you're depending on a young pitcher coming off a torn ACL in Yovani Gallardo to be the ace and carry the load. Houston just 67 wins? Really? The Cubs are going to win this crappy division by a lot, I'd predict it goes this way:

1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Astros
4. Brewers
5. Reds
6. Buccos

But yeah, completely agree about what does it matter? I still have zero faith in them to win a playoff game and that's all that really matters. The real season for me doesn't start until October. This is going to be the longest season ever. It makes me mad just talking about it.

real stadiums have roofs said...

the best offense in the majors is good for at least 83 wins. throw in looper and they're contending for the pennant.

i would be shocked to see the cubs finish higher than third. did pecota factor in harden's torn labrum, dempster's return to the mean, bradley's and soriano's month long dl stints, and zambrano's increased offseason porn regimen? or perhaps aaron miles makes up for all of that.

Matt Clapp said...

You're either being sarcastic or you're nuts. Braden Pooper blows my ballsack, he's a #4 at best. Best offense in the majors? Eh, look back at the NL last year and it's the Cubs in almost every major statistical category. That was also without Soriano for awhile, Lee having a down year, Aramis having a down year, etc.

You're referring to Soriano like he's injury prone. He got drilled on the wrist last year... anybody's getting hurt there. He had the hamstring injury on his stupid hop the year before, but that's the only legitimate injury he's had in his whole career really. It's never been a problem with him.

Bradley's sure to spend a month on the DL, but you also know he led the AL in OPS last year right?

They'll win this division and it won't be close, even if they're not as good as last year's team.

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