Identity Crisis: Bulls Don't Know Who They Are

Did you see the Chicago Bulls win the last 3 games? I thought I did, but then I realized that those might not have been the Bulls. What about the team that lost 5 straight just a week ago? This team cannot seem to find it's identity. For weeks at a time, it looks like this team cannot cover anyone, the big men can't defend the paint, Luol Deng can't get in the flow of the offense, and Vinny seems confused at best. Then all of a sudden, nobody can score on them, they block double digit shots in a game, they get easy dunks and layups all over the place, and Vinny seems confused at best. (Maybe Vinny isn't confused, but I sure am confused by how he "coaches").

The problem is twofold. Not only does this team look different every night, but Vinny goes with different lineups and schemes so there is no way to really tell what's working. For instance, he went with Thabo for long stretches against the Suns, and yet Rose was noticeably absent for most of the 4th quarter with a sore foot. Was one of those things why the Bulls played well? It's different rotations and "strategies" every night, so there is no way to tell.

There is no reason to be all negative, though. Some things are clearly clicking. Hinrich is starting to get comfortable on the court after missing much of the first half of the season. Tyrus and Noah are looking much more active on the glass and in transition. I think Noah finally realized if he hustles a little and sprints out on the fast break, Rose will find him for the easy basket. About time he figured that one out.

Most importantly the re-emergence of Luol Deng has been wonderful to watch. He is clearly in a rhythm right now. Ever since coming back from his brief stint on the IR, he has finally found his shots within the flow of the offense. I don't think anyone had completely turned on Deng yet, but I know my frustrations with him were starting to boil up after the 6 year-$71 million deal he signed.

All in all the Bulls have played well so far on this trip (besides that terrible loss to Minnesota). With the next three games @HOU, @NO, and @DAL, they have a tough stretch, and things don't get much easier after that. With this team we are looking for improvement and signs of great things to come, so if they can steal one win in the next three and play good basketball even if they lose, there's a lot of reason to be positive about this Bulls team.

Assuming it's this Bulls team that comes to play. I hope it's not that other, shitty Bulls team. If it's the shitty one, I'm going to bed early.

Chicago's Worst Contracts

In honor of Larry Hughes and his terrible contract, I decided to write about the worst sports contracts that currently exist in Chicago. I didn't include any Bears contracts since none of the money is guaranteed, so the team can cut a bad contract pretty much anytime. God willing Hughes and all these people will be gone soon, but until then, here goes:

Almost Over
Larry Hughes ($13 million a year through 2010): The issues with Larry Hughes have been well-documented here. While his numbers haven't been horrendous this year, he is a notorious team cancer and he steals minutes from a team that is trying to develop it's young backcourt. Are we really better off with Hughes than we were with Ben Wallace? I think its a wash.

Jose Contreras ($10 million a year through 2009): Ok, so Contreras had an unbelievable 2005 season that was key to the Sox title run. He had a decent year in 2006 and was then rewarded with this 3 year deal which made some sense at the time. His numbers have slid since then, however, posting a 5.57 ERA in 2007 and a 4.54 in an injury-riddled 2008. 2009 remains to be seen, but his contract is up after this season, so he won't be a problem for long.


Too Early to Tell
Kirk Hinrich ($9.5 million a year through 2012): Kirk Hinrich seemed like he would be a solid contributor on the Bulls for years. He may have reached his ceiling, but the Bulls were willing to pay him a 4 year deal based on that ceiling. Unfortunately he had an awful awful year last season (along with the rest of the Bulls). With the acquisition of Rose, it now looks like even if he gets back to his former 16ppg and 6apg lines, there may not be a place for him in the lineup. It remains to be seen if he can play next to Rose.

Alfonso Soriano ($17 million a year through 2014): Obviously he has the potential to be great. Even without the steals that he used to put up in New York, his bat can still sing and carry the Cubs offense for long stretches. If he can stay healthy, this contract may not be that terrible. That being said, he claims that he is 33, but the truth is he is probably more like 35 or 36. That would make him 39 and 40 in the final years of his contract. Very few players production gets better or even stays the same at that age, excluding Barry Bonds of course.

Luol Deng ($11.5 million a year through 2014): It's way too soon to tell with Luol. I was reluctant to put him on this list at first, but if he cannot find his place in this offense, it may turn out being a bad contract. At this point it seems his best may be a second option, which is definitely not worth the $71 million he got. He is also coming off an injury and learning his place in a new offense. Only time will tell.

Cristobal Huet (4 years, $22.5 Mil): Huet's contract didn't look bad at all with Khabibulin struggling last year. Khabibulin's deal would have come close to topping this list a year ago actually. The Hawks signed Nikolai to a four year, $27 million deal when he was 32. Huet was also 32 when the Hawks inked him for $4.5 million less. However, with Khabibulin playing well, the Hawks have two goaltenders taking up two of their four biggest contracts. It's great to have a dependable backup, and it was nice of him to push Khabibulin to be decent, but that's a lot of money for a backup. Obviously the deal could end up being okay if Huet emerges as a starter when Bulin leaves, or the Hawks can use him as trade bait to get another defender or veteran scorer for the playoffs. Remember the Hawks still have promising youngster Corey Crawford waiting for his turn. (Thanks to StevieY19 for contributing on this one)

Just Plain Awful
Andres Nocioni ($7 million a year through 2012): This guy is terrible. Somehow his +/- is high, but that statistic is very misleading. He is not worth this money, but could be at least somewhat useful if used as a SMALL FORWARD (stop playing him at pf and c Vinny, we get killed on the glass!) in short bursts to bring energy off the bench. He can't guard anyone on defense and he is a black hole on offense. The one great thing about Nocioni is that someone somewhere will probably think he is a good piece to add to their team. But will Pax pull the trigger if he gets the chance? Probably not.

Kosuke Fukudome ($12 million a year through 2011): This one is painful for me. I bought a Kosuke jersey tee 2 days after they signed him last winter. He was unstoppable in April and May and even though I felt like a douche wearing a trendy Fukudome shirt, at least he was playing well. We all know what happened next. The bottom completely fell out. His performance from May onwards was horrendous. He is very good defensively and extremely patient at the plate, which makes him useful as a late inning defensive replacement and a pinch hitter; the highest-paid defensive replacement/pinch hitter in the National League. There is a slim chance he can adjust to major league pitching. Very slim.

What Boost Did Hinrich and Deng Give The Bulls Last Night Exactly?

If you are a reader of ESPN.com (I am, reluctantly) then you know about the recent renovation of their site. Obviously there are going to be a few bugs, but pre-writing stories before the game ends? That's pretty shady. Well they clearly did that with regards to the Bulls game last night, as this picture from Blaze of Love shows (great site by the way, check it out sometime):

Oops. I wonder what the first link said exactly. And who is the guy at ESPN.com that writes the headline about the Bulls winning before the game is over "just in case" they win? By the way, Kirk looked decent and Deng looked the same as he has all year-tentative and in love with his jumper.

Today's Links-Bears Break My Heart Edition

• Bears lose in a nailbiter. Just kidding everyone, it wasn't a nailbiter. Bears just flat out lost, and it sucks.
• Akinori Otsuka a Cub? If he has recovered from that surgery it would be perfect. Sorry if I'm not totally sold on Bob Howry 2.0 (Kevin Gregg)
• Ben Gordon passes Scottie Pippen on the all-time Bulls 3 pointers made list.
  
• The Hawks are playing dominant hockey right now, extending their win streak to 9. Maybe they earned this Karma from the famous "Funeral Burger" incident?
  
• At least we aren't the Lions, 0-16 is epic in it's own way though.
• Illini get a win against Eastern Michigan. I'm just wondering what the deal is with Alex Legion? He's barely getting minutes and when he does he isn't exactly producing.
• Lovie thinks the Bears are "close". Close to what? He is living in a fantasy world.
• Bulls are struggling with Deng AND Gooden out, especially on defense.

Holiday Links

• Luol Deng is not, and never was, that great. Here is a great analysis by the numbers of why it was a mistake to sign him to a huge deal.
• How about the best sports injuries of 2008? You think Rose's apple-slicing incident will be in there? I'm guessing yes.
  
• The last Thursday Dick Joke Jamboroo of the regular season.
  
• Have you ever heard of the "College of Coaches"? It was a little known, yet hilarious technique employed by the Cubs in the 60s. What a nightmare. A perfect example of Chicago Cubs ineptitude over the last century.
• Are the Texans going to bench their starters? That would be great, but it seems unlikely (and shady). The Bears can use all the help they can get though.
• Top Ten Chicago sports stories of 2008.

Post-Circus Bulls Report

The pre-circus and circus trip part of the Bulls schedule is finally over. What have we learned during this time period about a Bulls team that had almost as many question marks as guards to start the season? The answers are not simple or clear-cut, but some things have become apparent:

The Schedule:

According to John Hollinger's power rankings which are based on some advanced metrics, the Bulls are only 18th in the league. What is interesting to note about that is the Bulls have the toughest strength of schedule by a significant margin. Entering Sunday, their opponents had a .606 winning percentage and the team with the next highest strength of schedule has opponents with a winning percentage of .576. The Bulls should be very happy at 8-9 against some very tough opponents.

Also the Bulls upcoming schedule is against a bunch of really crappy teams: Phi, @Mil, Was, NYK, @Mem, NJ, @Cha, LAC. The only team with a winning record in that bunch is the Nets, and they don't exactly scare anyone this year. The Bulls should be able to generate some momentum against these bad teams.

Coach Vinny:

It still remains unclear what offense he is running exactly. I understand that he is utilizing a high screen roll with Gordon and Rose most of the time. The other players not involved in those screen rolls seem lost, however. Also, his rotations are still inconsistent. While we have to be fair and allow him to learn his team before he settles on regular minutes, he has to understand that guys need to know their roles. On the other hand, the players seem to really respect and like him so far and his philosophy of pushing the ball has had some very positive results. The jury is still out on the coach, however, and only time will tell if he has some sort of cohesive offensive plan that can be effective.

Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon Starting:

It's working. Offensively these two are both scoring in bunches. Defensively, they are bad. Not as bad as everyone seems to think, but still bad. They are undersized and do not stay in front of their men. Rose will improve defensively and Gordon has always been underrated as a defender (for instance on a scale of 1 to 10, everyone thinks he's a 2 when he's really a 4; still not great but manageable). This lineup is worth trotting out every time. They are the most effective backcourt the Bulls have, even accounting for the defensive deficiencies.

That all being said, they are not playing as efficiently as they could be. If you have been watching the games lately (you're probably pretty tired considering they start at 9:30 pm), you will notice that Gordon and Rose don't play off each other. When Rose has the ball, he makes a move and tries to get guys open and find them in good positions to score or he takes it to the hole himself. When Gordon has the ball, he dribbles around and then takes a bad shot. Gordon needs to run off screens more off the ball and give up the rock when Rose is on the court with him. What he doesn't understand is his numbers will get better rather than worse if he gives the ball to Rose. Rose can get him the ball when he has open shots. When Gordon dribbles around and shoots, they are usually off balance and ill-conceived. Play off the ball Ben!

What's The Deal With Larry Hughes:


Here are the stats prior to Sunday night's game, do with them what you will. This season he is averaging 14.2 points and shooting 43 percent as a starter while averaging 7.7 points and shooting 33 percent coming off the bench. He shoots 45 percent when the Bulls win and 35 percent when they lose. He averages 14.8 per game when the Bulls win and 8.8 when they lose. Hughes is eight for 12 on threes in Bulls wins and one for 15 on threes in Bulls losses.

So what does this mean? Is Hughes critical to winning games, or are his poor performances the thing that is making us lose them? Hughes would argue the team benefits when he gets more minutes. I'm not sure how to feel about any of this, since I hated him so much before. So long as he continues to take the ball to the hoop and play solid defense, he can have minutes. What my hope is is that playing Hughes was a directive from above, since Pax wants to deal Hughes and is trying to pump up his value. Even if Harry Lughes is here to stay, he is still 32, expensive and taking minutes from younger guys.

Luol Deng, Where Art Thou:

I don't know, where the hell is he? Just kidding. I guess I have to post some theories about what happened to his game. Here is the list of possibilities for things that might be causing him to be a non-factor so far this season:

1) The pressure of a new contract.

2) He doesn't know where his shots come from in Vinny's "offense".

3) He has fallen in love with his jumper.

4) His bad back and other assorted injuries are catching up to him.

5) Instead of working on his game this summer, he played in Europe.

6) He has been seeing time at the 4, as well as getting irregular minutes since the emergence of Harry Lughes, causing him to lose his rhythm.

Ok there are your options. It may be one or several of those reasons, or perhaps even one I can't think of. Either way, Lu needs to get it going for this team to have any real success this season.

The Bulls Frontcourt; Young and Possibly Retarded:

What happened here? Tyrus Thomas was supposed to finally take a step forward this year with Skiles not yelling at him all the time. His fragile ego was going to remain intact under Vinny and allow him to emerge as the true star that his athleticism and potential would let him be. Oops. We all got fooled. He sucks. I mean he is really bad. The worst part is the random decent game he has that keeps idiots like me hanging on to the hope that he can be good. He is terrible, and whenever he gets into a rut like he is in now, he can't get himself out because he is an idiot. There is no point continuing to discuss him because he sucks and it looks like he will be a non-factor going forward.

Joakim Noah has been a disappointment as well. I don't think anyone was pegging him as an all-star, but the thought was he could line up next to Gooden or Thomas and be a high energy guy that plays good defense and rebounds. Nope. He has been pretty much ineffective at center. I'm not sure he warrants getting only 6 minutes a game, but it's hard for me to argue with Vinny when Noah shows no life out there.

Gooden is Gooden. He is a great role player. He can score on the block and rebounds very well. Unfortunately he is playing out of position at the center spot (thanks to Noah's digression and Gray being Gray). His defensive lapses notwithstanding, he has been a key component to the Bulls early success.

Vinny Del Negro Finds 3-Guard Game Plan in Skiles Old Desk

Let's set the scene: The Bulls are struggling against a superior opponent. Luol Deng seems to have disappeared offensively, Tyrus and Joakim have been relegated to the bench for what seems like no reason. The Bulls trail by double digits (let's say 17). The Bulls coach, in desperation, goes to the 3-guard lineup to try to shake things up. Somehow, miraculously, the Bulls mount a comeback with this lineup that falls just short. Sound familiar? Yeah it happened the other night in Orlando, but it was also the modus operandi of the Bulls under Skiles the last few seasons as well. Though the Bulls got some positive results from that lineup, the coach thinks (or in Skiles case insists) that the smallball lineup is effective.

The only reason those lineups worked was because there was a specific matchup that favored it (against Orlando, Howard is the only true big man, Rashard and Hedo are perimeter guys), or if the Bulls were down by 20 playing against the other team's scrubs. Otherwise the 3-guard lineup does not work. It makes the Bulls, already a rebounding-challenged team, even more susceptible to getting outboarded.

What Vinny has yet to understand is that players need to know their roles and play in the position that allows them the most success. He needs to stop mixing up the lineups and experimenting. Thabo is not a pg or sg, he is only there for his defense. Nocioni should be coming off the bench as a spark in certain situations. Hinrich should not be at the 2 (though this is being proven wrong, Rose is somehow able to raise Kirk's effectiveness at the 2). Deng and Nocioni should not be playing power forward ever. Tyrus should never be at the small forward. All of those things put players out of their comfort zone.

Regardless of his opinion of the 3-guard lineup, he needs to let people know their roles and put them in the best position to win. The jury is still out on Vinny, but for now, his biggest job should be to set a rotation and stick with it.

One last slightly unrelated note: If there is a possession with the potential to win or tie the game at the end (down 1, 2, or 3 with less than 30 seconds), the ball needs to be in Rose's hands. Ben Gordon needs to understand his role on this team. It will benefit him as well, since he will likely get better looks than he would have, since Rose creates good shots for everyone around him. That shot he took at the end of the Magic game was ugggggggly.

Free Luol Deng!

Looks like the British ponied up the dough to insure Deng's back. The only thing left is for the Bulls to sign off on it and for the check to clear. Luol Deng is a free man! Personally I'm not thrilled to have him possibly hurt, especially considering this saga has uncovered some disturbing facts about his back. Oh well. Good luck Lu. (I love this photo of Deng. Classic.)

Today's Links--Rammy's Granny Edition

Finally! An analysis of the Dream Team vs. the Redeem Team that is based on empirical evidence. Dream Team wins by the way.

CUBBIES!!! Sorry, I was at the game last night. Recap: Hamels was untouchable, but the second he came out it was HR, double, single, walk, granny. Rammy is the man. Apparently it was Lou's birthday as well.

An explanation of how and why Deng cannot play in FIBA games because of his back, and what GB can do to make this go away. I'll give you a clue: It costs 2.5 million dollars.

Cubs v. White Sox World Series? It's possible, but Phil Rogers claims it would be a bad thing for the Cubs.

Hilarious exchange between a Sun-Times reader and the editor of the Times, along with other reader reactions (via deadspin). Oh and Ozzie seems pretty excited about Mariotti, but that's no surprise.

Roger Ebert weighs in on Mariotti leaving. He isn't happy with the "rat" either.

Apparently there was some kind of Bears game last night. Whatever. Wake me up when the regular season starts so our offense can put me right back to sleep.

Lovie is pissed about reports that Daniel Manning is out at nickelback. Ok Lovie, we get it. Daniel is your nickelback.

Luolibility Insurance

Well there hasn't been a lot of Bulls news lately, but then all of a sudden this bad news popped up on the radar: Luol Deng will not be allowed to play for the UK National Team. Your first thought might be: Passport problems? Nope. But wait, you say; I thought the NBA was required to release anyone who wanted to play for their national team? Well, yes, but like anything else, there is fine print. If the New York insurance company that insures NBA contracts will not insure the contract, then the NBA does not have to let the player go to his national team. Guess what?

"Deng, 23, signed a lucrative new deal with the Chicago Bulls two weeks ago after passing a battery of medical tests.

But the NBA's New York insurance company, which must cover all NBA players before they can play for their national teams, has refused to completely insure that contract because of an old back injury.

Deng missed three games in November with a minor back problem and the insurance broker's decision is based on an MRI scan taken then. Although a policy has been issued it does not cover that part of the player's body."

So what does this mean? How bad is Deng's back? Why haven't we heard about this? I mean the NBA has insured some pretty shitty players/contracts, but they won't insure a 23 year old with a minor back problem? What is management thinking signing him to this deal if his back problems might be this serious? What more should we, the fans and paying customers, know about these problems? I'm really pissed right now. I love Deng as a person and a player, but come on! I hope that this doesn't become a serious problem. On the other hand, f&$*% the UK, let him rest for the summer.

Today's Links

• White Sox win, Vazquez goes 8 shutout innings with 10 k's. When he's good he's good. Sox are gonna need it with Contreras all gimped out.
  
• Hilarious pictures of Cubs fans. Embarassingly hilarious.
  
• Soriano knows Japanese, and he's going to talk to Fukudome about consistency. Uh-oh.
  
• This Beekman guy is filling in nicely at guard for the Bears. We could use some pleasant surprises.
• Interview with Luol Deng. Not really about basketball, but its still interesting.
• Cubs Game rained out last night. Doubleheader today!
• Iguodala signs for 80 million. The Deng deal looks pretty good now. BG has got to be pissed though, he's the only "premier" restricted free agent left unsigned.
  

Today's Links

• Luol Deng is in London, teaching kids the art of the mid-range jumper. Watch the videos, one is of him working it on the court, the other is an interview where he talks about a few interesting things.
• And with their first round pick, the Bears select....surgery.
  
• Hilarious vent from a Tigers fan about how she hates Nick Swisher. She is quite angry.
• Scott Eyre gets traded for some minor leaguers.
• Bears lose, but there were some positives.
• Vazquez can't finish off Tigers, but more importantly Griffey looks to be hurting the team in the field as much as he's helping.

Today's Links

• Cuban went to Kerry Wood's charity event last night? Maybe Cuban buying the Cubs is really legit.
• Are the Bulls doomed to mediocrity by signing Deng and Gordon long-term?
• No more tailgating during Bears games? They can't be serious.
• Are you serious? The Cubs are wrecking the ball. They average 5.3 runs/game. No joke. Yesterday was no exception.
• So I guess the Bulls are looking to sign a 7'2" Iranian guy. Interesting...
• Sox win to stay in first...Twins win to stay 1 behind. It's going to be interesting down the stretch, thats for sure.
• Favre to the Jets. Good riddance. I hope this ends horribly.
  

Today's Links

• Luol Deng is a really great guy. An interesting article about Luol having nothing to do with basketball (via Truehoop).
  
• Ozzie admits to ordering his pitchers to hit people. I'm not sure how that is "news".
• Woody's ready to go. We could use him.
• I guess I'm just into Ozzie today. Ozzie's Top Ten Greatest Quotes.
• Ok, so the Bears need to fix the Offensive line, right? So they draft a lineman in the first round, right? So....he's hurt now. So the line is shuffling around and guys are playing out of position. Does it really matter whether Grossman or Orton are quarterback if the line is going to give up 7 sacks a game?
• What a hook! I wonder what Prince was upset about. Not enough cheeseburgers in the clubhouse? Cecil called and pissed him off? The wheels are coming off in Milwaukee (deja vu?), and we will be able to point to last week's sweep as a turning point for the Brew Crew.
• Activities during the rain delay: 1) Go to basement to avoid tornado; 2) Find throwback Obama jersey online; 3) watched "Martin" on rain delay theater. After all that, Cubs lose anyways and I am exhausted.

The Dichotomy of The Chicago Bulls

There seems to be a sentiment among fans, media and anyone else who cares about the Chicago Bulls that certain guys need to go and certain need to stay in order for this 08-09 incarnation of the Bulls to have success. I'm not here to suggest that a big move won't be made. In fact, even though I'm a huge Kirk fan as most of you know, I would not be against a move that would ship him and his contract out. I would be fine with sending him or any other number of players to another team in a salary dump. See I have a little theory about the Bulls as they are currently constituted. I call it the "2 generation" theory. The team right now basically consists of 2 generations: the young, potential-filled generation; and the older, already hit their peak generation. Here is a breakdown:

Young Generation
Thabo (24)
Rose (19)
Tyrus (21)
Noah (23)
Deng (23)
Gray(23)

Old Generation
Gooden (26)
Gordon (25)
Hinrich (27)
Hughes (29)
Nocioni (28)

Now some people are going to look at this and say "why is 24-25 the arbitrary cut off point?" Three reasons. The first is that statistically and historically speaking, most players peak is age 26-30 (though there are obvious exceptions). The second reason is contractual. By this I mean to say that most players are coming off their rookie contracts around 24-25, like Deng and Gordon now, so the guys in the "Old" group have bigger contracts. The third reason is purely from my gut, meaning that I feel like the guys in the "Old" group have peaked or just plain suck.

So what's the point? Well the point is that Paxson should be looking to move the people in the old generation and develop the guys in the new generation. No one in that old generation will be better than they are now. And none of the old guys is good enough to be worth their contracts ranging from 6 mil/year-13mil/year. Build around the young generation. Keeping the guys around from the old generation will only hinder our cap flexibility AND hinder the development of the young 'uns.

So in the final analysis, the discussion about whether to move Hughes or Gordon or Hinrich is really not the issue. Personally, I think we should keep BG and move Kirk. But either way I'll be happy. We need to move the older, bigger contract guys and free up minutes for our kids.

*Side Note: Gordon and Deng interestingly enough buck the trend, since Deng has a fat contract and is in the young group; and Gordon has no contract and is in the old group. While this is a discussion for another day, it is important to note that Deng may have a higher ceiling than we've seen. As opposed to BG, who may or may not improve on his defense (I'm guessing not). I'm not a scout, but that's just how it seems.