Jim Hendry Got Fleeced By Milton Bradley (UPDATE: Or Maybe He Didn't)

NQTC reader Ethan pointed out to me this morning that perhaps the Bradley signing was a bit premature in light of the recent contracts that have been given out. In the last week, Adam Dunn signed for 2 years and $10 million dollars, while Abreu signed for 1 year and $5 million dollars. Early in the free agent period, however, Hendry signed Bradley to a 3 year deal for $30 million dollars!! Is he that much better than those other two, or did Hendry just misjudge the market? It seems pretty apparent that he did.

Looking at the career numbers of the 3 outfielders, they are very similar in terms of production:

Adam Dunn--- AVG: .247 OBP: .381 SLG: .518
Bobby Abreu--- AVG: .300 OBP: .405 SLG: .498
Milton Bradley--- AVG: .280 OBP: .370 SLG: .457

If anything, those players have far better career numbers than Bradley. That doesn't even take injuries or age into account either. Abreu is 34, but that hardly matters in terms of his contract since it is only 1 year and not a long-term commitment. Adam Dunn is actually 29, a year younger than Bradley at 30. Both Dunn and Abreu have been considerably healthier during their careers than the fragile Bradley as well.

I'm not trying to say that Bradley will be bad or that he was a bad acquisition. It just seems that with all the salary jockeying the Cubs have been doing, this deal to Bradley is unnecessarily expensive. Hendry clearly misjudged the market for free agent outfielders. It is easy to say that in hindsight, the market was way lower than Hendry had thought. But looking at all the factors, there were a bunch of decent quality outfielders available and not a lot of teams out there looking. Is the difference between Bradley's actual contract and what the market would have afforded him today what handcuffed Hendry on the Peavy deal? We will never know, but right now it looks like our ne'er do wrong GM may have made a bad miscalculation.

***UPDATE: A few things have been brought to my attention in the last couple hours since making this post. Thanks to NQTC reader Gavin, who pointed out a few things in the comments and a few things to me directly. Looks like I was wrong about Hendry being fleeced:

Phillies signed Raul Ibanez - 3 years, $31.5 million on 12/19/08.

Tampa Bay singed Pat Burrell - 2 years, $16 million on 01/08/09.

The Cubs signed Bradley officially on 01/27/09. So it's not as if they went completely out of the range for outfielder's this offseason. It doesn't appear that there were that many high-level OF's out there this off-season but once these guys were signed before Bradley, I'm surprised the Cubs didn't try to play Bradley, Dunn and Abreu off each other to at least make Bradley think they could go elsewhere to get a left handed bat.

Also, it appears that the Dunn deal was actually for 2 years and $20 million dollars. This is what I get for doubting Hendry.

Cubs Convention Recap

I wasn't at the Cubs convention myself, but there are a few tidbits of news that came out of it which might be interesting. Here's a little recap of the highlights (and lowlights):

• Zambrano thinks Lasik surgery will fix his subpar numbers from the second half of the season last year. Seems unlikely that fixing his eyes will fix the fatigue in his arm.



• Speaking of tired arms, it appears that Harden has a minor tear in his shoulder. It's unclear how serious it is, but the coaching staff assures us its no big deal. Hmmm.



• Apparently Soriano is willing to bat in whichever position Lou puts him. Lou says he likes Fonzy in the leadoff but will consider other options. Same old same old.



• Apparently there will be a competition between Gregg and Marmol for closer. I'm on board with that, but we all know Marmol is the guy. As I've said a hundred times, Gregg is Bobby Howry 2.0.



• Hendry was booed on Friday. I presume it had to do with dealing DeRosa, but who knows with Cubs fans. Apparently when Aaron Miles was introduced, the fans chanted "De-Ro, De-Ro" so there you have it.



• Apparently Samardijza was told to report to spring training "ready to start". Obviously injuries and other circumstances may change that, but the question becomes; Who does he start over? With Harden, Z, Lilly, Dempster, Marshall, there's not much room. I guess Marshall would be the obvious one to lose his spot if Samardijza has a good spring.



• Improvements to Wrigley were discussed. The new Friendly Confines Cafe by right field will be opening. Also the new triangle building across the street should be ready around 2012-2013.



• Soto was MIA from the convention. Probably not a big deal.



• Day 3 was much of the same as day 1 and 2. Repeated assurances from Hendry all weekend that the dealing was far from over. Numerous questions about the order of the lineup.



• Were you wondering why Bradley was given Sosa's number 21? So were a lot of fans, since there are some expectations that his number may be retired.



• A lot of discussion had on Day 3 revolved around the Cubs farm system. I'm not too familiar with it, but apparently there is a push for "more athletic pitchers". Hopefully that means pitchers not made of glass.

All in all the biggest news to come out of the convention wasn't related to it at all. That was the deal that sent Pie to Baltimore for spare parts. Otherwise there was nothing especially interesting. Hendry was very coy in responding to all questions about Jake Peavy, which would lead one to believe a deal is still possible. Pitchers and catchers report soon, so stay tuned...

Today's Links

• With Stormin' Norman as a witness, the Hawks beat the Sabres 4-1 in a very sexy performance. They even had six straight minutes of killing (a penalty).
• Rose scores 17 of his 25 in the fourth as the Bulls beat Toronto 102-98. Deng had 16 and 14 in his return to the starting lineup.
• Hendry says the Cubs are still looking to make moves this off-season. Cuz they're rich!
• Sam Bradford is coming back to Oklahoma to try for a national title and another Heisman, or....avoid the Lions.
• The talk is that Eli Manning will get tons of money when he signs his new deal. But is he worth it?
• Illinois took care of Michigan last night, outscoring the Wolverines 36-20 in the second half. Beanstalk Mike Tisdale had 24 points.
• Hey, anyone want to sign Ben Sheets? Anyone? Maybe?
• In closing, a spirited argument for Rachel Nichols in the Erin Andrews vs. Nichols debate. Via NFL Juice.
  

Today's Links

• The Bulls finally win one! It came down to the wire, but they pulled it out. If the last week has shown anything, it's that Drew Gooden is very important to this team.
  
• Antoine Walker gets busted for driving drunk. It couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.
• Top Ten odds on what Milton Bradley will do this season. Pretty funny.
• The Cubs just finished sending Jason Marquis to the Rockies. Does that mean there will be enough money for Peavy? We probably won't know until the Cubs are sold.
• Mark Cuban has something to say about his involvement in the sale of the Cubs.
• Top Ten Michael Jordan magazine covers of all time via Zoner.
• Don't worry about Milton Bradley's ability to stay healthy, Jim Hendry already took care of that in the contract.
• Bears linebackers coach Lloyd Lee is out. Please let Babich be next!?
• Look who the Chicago Tribune writers voted for the Baseball Hall of Fame. Harold Baines? Really Phil Rogers and Paul Sullivan? Baines? Oh and Rogers voted for Grace. That's fine I guess, except for how its a terrible vote. I hate our mainstream sports media.
  

The Kerry Wood Saga Isn't Quite Over....Ok, Now It Is

If you have been paying attention to arbitration news in Major League Baseball, you may have heard that the Cubs had the option to offer Kerry Wood and Bobby Howry arbitration by midnight tonight. Well the Cubs chose not to offer that to him, but what does it all mean?

Basically, major league teams can offer arbitration to certain free agents by 12/1 (yesterday) and then those players have until 12/7 to accept. Since the Cubs declined to offer Wood or Howry arbitration, you might be asking "Who cares?" Well it matters. In baseball, when a marquee free agent leaves, the team that he leaves is rewarded with high draft picks. The team only gets those picks, however, if they make an effort to resign the free agent. That "effort" is satisfied only by offering the free agent arbitration. What this means is that the player and the team sit down in front of an arbitrator and that arbitrator decides what that player's value is in terms of salary. The team is then bound by that salary amount, if the player chooses to accept it.

In terms of Bobby Howry, there was never a question that they would offer him arbitration, since whatever amount an arbitrator decided on would be more than they would be willing to spend on a washed up reliever.

Kerry Wood is a different story. The Cubs in this situation decided that an arbitrator would have determined that Wood was worth 9 million or more. They feel that they do not want to pay that much, as evidenced by their earlier decision not to offer Wood a contract. Even though the 9 million one year deal is probably far below the multi-year deal that Wood could get on the open market, Hendry still felt Wood might take it anyways since he has a clear preference to stay in Chicago.

Thus the Cubs did not offer Woody arbitration and will get no compensation draft picks. This seems reasonable, seeing as that 9 million is a huge chunk of money and could cut into Hendry's ability to trade for Peavy or acquire a left-handed bat in the outfield. It is not as cut and dry as that, however. Since Hendry went out and acquired Kevin Gregg, he is going to be on the hook for about 5-6 million for Gregg. So essentially what this means is that the difference here is only about 3-4 million. I do not know the market for left-handed bats as well as Hendry, but 3 million does not seem like a good enough reason to give up 2 high compensation picks or take a huge downgrade in the bullpen from Wood to Gregg.

All in all, I give the handling of this entire situation a B-. If 3-4 million is the difference between getting a power left-handed bat or not getting one, then so be it. We can only wait and see what happens but I find that hard to believe 3 million will be the difference and it seems the Cubs would be far better off with 2 compensation picks (if Kerry refused the offer) or having Wood over Gregg (if he accepted and thus Hendry did not need to deal for Gregg at all).

There's Only One Person To Blame For The Cubs Epic Collapse in 2008: Fukudome's Translator

While the finger pointing from outside the Cubs organization has piled up in the last month since the Cubs got on their knees and blew the NLDS, very little has been heard from within the organization about why they feel the Cubs screwed up. Well actions speak louder than words, and Jim Hendry is making a clear statement of blame here:

Hendry already has made...moves this off-season...firing Fukudome's interpreter, Ryuji Araki. Hendry wants to find an interpreter who jells better with the Japanese outfielder.

There you have it. So next time you hear them talking about team chemistry, don't just think about Theriot and DeRosa's ability to turn double plays or players getting along in the clubhouse. Remember, if a sacred relationship between a foreign player and his interpreter goes wrong, a whole season can go in the toilet. Wait wait wait, I have a better idea than firing Kosuke's interpreter: Acquire a power hitting left-handed bat! No, no that can't be right.(Thanks to Ethan for finding this little bit of news).

Today's Links

• Kosuke has been relegated to defensive replacement. He wasn't even in the lefty heavy lineup on Monday.
• Top ten Chicago baseball surprises. This is a great top ten list. Also top ten Chicago no-hitters. That one is a little obscure for most of the list, but still interesting.
  
• Cubs win. Magic number is down to 4. "We are on the cusp of history every single night". A little dramatic, but it is an exciting time to be a Cubs fan. Oh, and C.C. Sabathia takes his first loss in the NL. Boo-hoo.
  
• So how badly is Hester injured? Will he play next week? In two weeks? Ever? We'll find out at the press conference today.
• Do some Cubs want to have a new ballpark? It was a good time at Miller, that's for sure.
• Konerko's return was a huge boost for the White Sox. This guy is great. White Sox won by the way.
• More Bears post-game notes. Kevin Payne had a great game.
  
• Pinella and Hendry in line for extensions? They definitely look like they've earned it right now.
• As Ron Santo always says in those Cubs commercials: "This is the year!!". Could it be the year for him to get into the Hall of Fame? Statistically he is better than half of the third basemen that are already in. We'll see.